This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified event occurs by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution requires a broad consensus of credible reporting confirming the event has taken place. Partial or ambiguous outcomes do not qualify.
Routine developments, minor policy changes, or speculative reports do not meet the resolution threshold. Only definitive, widely-reported confirmation qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major news outlets and official sources.
Market participants are pricing in current expectations based on the latest available information. Factors such as recent developments, expert analysis, and historical precedents all contribute to the current probability estimate. As new information emerges, the market price will adjust accordingly to reflect updated consensus expectations.
AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket dataAmount
To win